O sistema de comércio de emissões da ue e a política climática em relação a 2050

O Sistema de Comércio de Emissões da UE e a Política Climática em 2050: Incentivos reais para reduzir as emissões e impulsionar a inovação? CEPS Special Reports, 12 de janeiro de 2011.

Egenhofer, Christian e Alessi, Monica e Georgiev, Anton e Fujiwara, Noriko. (2011) O Sistema de Comércio de Emissões da UE e a Política Climática em 2050: Incentivos reais para reduzir as emissões e impulsionar a inovação? CEPS Special Reports, 12 de janeiro de 2011. UNSPECIFIED.

Com o Sistema de Comércio de Emissões da UE (ETS) que está entrando no seu sétimo ano de operação, este relatório faz um balanço do maior esquema multissetorial de comércio de gases com efeito de estufa no mundo. Revisa as experiências da fase piloto a partir de 2005-07, avalia os ajustes introduzidos na segunda fase (2008-12) e olha para frente as mudanças radicais que entrarão em vigor na terceira fase a partir de 2013. A avaliação é baseada em uma revisão de literatura de análises ex-post recentemente publicadas e estudos ex ante e desenhos também em nossos próprios cálculos. Investiga as principais controvérsias em torno do ETS da UE, tais como a sua eficácia ambiental, rendas econômicas, ganhos extraordinários e justiça, o papel do MDL e da JI e seu impacto na competitividade industrial. Ele também avalia a capacidade do esquema para promover a inovação e a implantação de tecnologia com baixas emissões de carbono. Finalmente, o estudo aborda a questão fundamental de se o ETS cumpriu sua promessa de "promover reduções das emissões de gases de efeito estufa de uma maneira econômica e economicamente eficiente" e, caso contrário, quais são as perspectivas de fazê-lo em o futuro e quais mudanças adicionais serão necessárias.

O Sistema de Comércio de Emissões da UE (EU ETS)

O Sistema de Comércio de Emissões da UE foi explicado.

O sistema de comércio de emissões da UE (EU ETS) é uma pedra angular da política da UE para combater as alterações climáticas e a sua ferramenta chave para reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa de forma rentável. É o primeiro grande mercado de carbono do mundo e continua sendo o maior deles.

opera em 31 países (todos os 28 países da UE, mais a Islândia, o Liechtenstein e a Noruega) limita as emissões de mais de 11 mil instalações de energia pesada (centrais eléctricas e instalações industriais) e as companhias aéreas que operam entre esses países cobre cerca de 45% dos gases de efeito estufa da UE emissões.

Para uma visão geral detalhada, consulte:

Um sistema "cap and trade".

O EU ETS trabalha no princípio do "capital e do comércio".

Um limite é fixado na quantidade total de certos gases de efeito estufa que podem ser emitidos por instalações cobertas pelo sistema. A tampa é reduzida ao longo do tempo para que as emissões totais caírem.

Dentro do limite, as empresas recebem ou compram licenças de emissão que podem trocar entre si, conforme necessário. Eles também podem comprar quantidades limitadas de créditos internacionais de projetos de poupança de emissões em todo o mundo. O limite do número total de permissões disponíveis garante que eles tenham um valor.

Após cada ano, uma empresa deve entregar licenças suficientes para cobrir todas as suas emissões, caso contrário, multas pesadas são impostas. Se uma empresa reduz suas emissões, ela pode manter as licenças de reposição para cobrir suas necessidades futuras ou então vendê-las para outra empresa que não possui licenças.

O comércio traz flexibilidade que garante que as emissões sejam reduzidas, quando menos custa. Um preço robusto de carbono também promove investimentos em tecnologias limpas e de baixo carbono.

Principais características da fase 3 (2013-2020)

O EU ETS está agora em sua terceira fase - significativamente diferente das fases 1 e 2.

As principais mudanças são:

Um único limite de emissões a nível da UE aplica-se ao sistema anterior de capitais nacionais. O leilão é o método padrão para a alocação de licenças (em vez da alocação gratuita), e as regras de alocação harmonizadas se aplicam às licenças ainda concedidas gratuitamente. Mais setores e Os gases incluíram 300 milhões de licenças reservadas na Reserva dos Novos Participantes para financiar a implantação de tecnologias inovadoras de energia renovável e captura e armazenamento de carbono através do programa NER 300.

Sectores e gases abrangidos.

O sistema abrange os seguintes setores e gases com foco em emissões que podem ser medidas, reportadas e verificadas com um alto nível de precisão:

dióxido de carbono (CO 2) da geração de energia e geração de energia setores industriais intensivos em energia, incluindo refinarias de petróleo, siderúrgicas e produção de ferro, alumínio, metais, cimento, lima, vidro, cerâmica, celulose, papel, papelão, ácidos e produtos químicos orgânicos a granel Óxido nitroso (N 2 O) da aviação comercial a partir da produção de ácidos nítrico, adípico e glioxílico e de perfluorocarbonetos glioxálicos (PFC) a partir da produção de alumínio.

A participação no ETS da UE é obrigatória para as empresas desses sectores, mas.

Em alguns sectores, apenas as instalações acima de um certo tamanho estão incluídas, certas pequenas instalações podem ser excluídas se os governos implementarem medidas fiscais ou outras que reduzam suas emissões por um montante equivalente no setor de aviação, até 2016 o ETS da UE se aplica apenas aos vôos entre aeroportos localizados no Espaço Económico Europeu (EEE).

Entregando reduções de emissões.

O ETS da UE provou que colocar um preço sobre o carbono e negociá-lo pode funcionar. As emissões das instalações do regime estão a diminuir como previsto - cerca de 5% em comparação com o início da fase 3 (2013) (ver dados de 2015).

Em 2020, as emissões dos setores abrangidos pelo sistema serão 21% menores do que em 2005.

Desenvolvendo o mercado do carbono.

Criado em 2005, o EU ETS é o primeiro e maior sistema internacional de comércio de emissões do mundo, respondendo por mais de três quartos do comércio internacional de carbono.

O EU ETS também está inspirando o desenvolvimento do comércio de emissões em outros países e regiões. A UE pretende ligar o EU ETS a outros sistemas compatíveis.

A legislação principal do EU ETS.

30/04/2014 - Versão consolidada da Directiva 2003/87 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho que estabelece um regime de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa na Comunidade e que altera a Directiva 96/61 / CE do Conselho 23/04/2009 - Directiva 2009/29 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho que altera a Directiva 2003/87 / CE de modo a melhorar e alargar o regime de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa da Comunidade 19/11/2008 - Directiva 2008/101 / CE do Conselho o Parlamento Europeu e o Conselho que altera a Directiva 2003/87 / CE, de modo a incluir actividades de aviação no âmbito do regime de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa na Comunidade 27/10/2004 - Directiva 2004/101 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do O Conselho que altera a Directiva 2003/87 / CE que estabelece um regime de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa na Comunidade, no que diz respeito aos mecanismos de projecto do Protocolo de Quioto 13/10/2003 - Directiva 2003/87 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho ncil que estabelece um regime de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa na Comunidade e que altera a Directiva 96/61 / CE do Conselho.

Relatórios do mercado de carbono.

23/11/2017 - COM (2017) 693 - Relatório sobre o funcionamento do mercado europeu do carbono 01/02/2017 - COM (2017) 48 - Relatório sobre o funcionamento do mercado europeu do carbono 18/11/2015 - COM (201) 2015) 576 - Relatório sobre o funcionamento do mercado europeu do carbono 14/11/2012 - COM (2012) 652 - O estado do mercado europeu do carbono em 2012.

Revisão do RCLE da UE para a fase 3.

04/02/2011 - Conclusões do Conselho Europeu de 4 de Fevereiro de 2011 (ver conclusões 23 e 24) 18/03/2010 - Orientações sobre a interpretação do Anexo I da Directiva EET da UE (excluindo actividades de aviação) 18/03/2010 - Orientação documento para identificar geradores de eletricidade 06/04/2009 - Comunicado de imprensa do Conselho sobre a adoção do pacote de clima e energia 12/12/2008 - Conclusões da Presidência do Conselho Europeu (11 e 12 de dezembro de 2008) 12/12/2008 - Conselho Europeu Declaração sobre a utilização das receitas de leilões 23/01/2008 - Proposta de directiva do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho que altera a Directiva 2003/87 / CE, a fim de melhorar e alargar o sistema de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa da Comunidade 23 / 01/2008 - Documento de trabalho dos serviços da Comissão - Documento de acompanhamento da proposta de diretiva do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho que altera a Diretiva 2003/87 / CE no sentido de melhorar e alargar o sistema de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa - Avaliação de impacto.

Implementação.

04/07/2013 - Alterado Projecto de regulamento relativo à determinação dos direitos creditórios internacionais 05/06/2013 - Projecto de regulamento relativo à determinação dos direitos creditórios internacionais 05/05/2013 Regulamento (UE) n. º 389/2013 da Comissão, de 2 de Maio de 2013, que estabelece um cadastro da União nos termos do à Diretiva 2003/87 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho, Decisões n. º 280/2004 / CE e n. º 406/2009 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho e que revoga os Regulamentos (UE) n. º 920/2010 da Comissão e N. º 1193/2011 Texto relevante para efeitos do EEE 18/11/2011 - Regulamento da Comissão que estabelece um Registo da União para o período de negociação com início em 1 de Janeiro de 2013 e períodos de negociação subsequentes do regime de comércio de emissões da União nos termos da Directiva 2003/87 / CE do o Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho e a Decisão 280/2004 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho e que altera os Regulamentos (CE) n. º 2216/2004 e (UE) n. º 920/2010 - ainda não publicado no Jornal Oficial 07 / 10/2010 - Regulamento da Comissão (UE) n. º 920/2010 para um sistema de registos normalizado e seguro de acordo com a Directiva 2003/87 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho e a Decisão no 280/2004 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho - versão não incluindo as alterações introduzidas pelo Regulamento de 18 de Novembro de 2011 08/10/2008 - Regulamento (CE) n. º 994/2008 da Comissão para um sistema de registos normalizado e seguro, nos termos da Directiva 2003/87 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho e Decisão no 280/2004 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho - versão aplicável até 31 de Dezembro de 2011 26/10/2007 - Decisão do Comité Misto do EEE n. ° 146/2007 que liga o RCLE UE à Noruega, à Islândia e ao Liechtenstein 13/11 / 2006 - Decisão 2006/780 / CE da Comissão relativa à prevenção da contenção dupla de reduções das emissões de gases com efeito de estufa no âmbito do regime comunitário de comércio de licenças de emissão para as actividades dos projectos no âmbito do Protocolo de Quioto nos termos da Directiva 2003/87 / CE do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho (n documentado no documento C (2006) 5362) 21/12/2004 - Versão consolidada do Regulamento (CE) n. º 2216/2004 da Comissão relativa a um sistema de registos normalizado e seguro, alterado pelo Regulamento (CE) n. º 916/2007 da Comissão, de 31 de Julho 2007, Regulamento (CE) n. o 994/2008 da Comissão, de 8 de Outubro de 2008, e Regulamento (UE) n. o 920/2010 da Comissão, de 7 de Outubro de 2010 - versão sem alterações introduzidas pelo Regulamento de 18 de Novembro de 2011.

Aplicação do IVA.

História legislativa da Directiva 2003/87 / CE.

Trabalho anterior à proposta da Comissão.

08/02/2000 - COM (2000) 87 - Livro Verde sobre o comércio de emissões de gases com efeito de estufa na União Europeia Mandato e resultados do Grupo de Trabalho 1 do ECCP: Mecanismos flexíveis 04/09/2001 - Resumo do Presidente da reunião da consulta das partes interessadas (com Indústria ONG ambientais e ambientais 19/05/1999 - COM (1999) 230 - Preparativos para a implementação do Protocolo de Quioto 03/06/1998 - COM (1998) 353 - Alterações climáticas - Rumo a uma estratégia pós-Quioto da UE Âmbito do RCLE UE : 07/2007 - Pequenas Instalações dentro do Sistema de Comércio de Emissões da UE 10/2006 - Inclusão de atividades e gases adicionais no Sistema de Comércio de Emissões da UE Maior harmonização e maior previsibilidade: 12/2006 - A abordagem para novos entrantes e encerramentos 10/2006 - Leilão das licenças de emissão de CO2 no RCLE-UE 10/2006 - Harmonização das metodologias de atribuição 12/2006 - Relatório sobre a competitividade internacional Grupo de trabalho do ECCP sobre o comércio de emissões sobre a revisão do RCLE da UE 15/06/2007 - Relatório final do 4º mee sobre a ligação com os sistemas de comércio de emissões em países terceiros 22/05/2007 - Relatório final da 3ª reunião sobre mais harmonização e previsibilidade aumentada 26/04/2007 - Relatório final da 2ª reunião sobre conformidade robusta e execução 09/03/2007 - Relatório final da primeira reunião sobre o âmbito da directiva.

Proposta da Comissão de outubro de 2001.

22/01/2002 - Documento não oficial sobre sinergias entre a proposta de comércio de emissões da CE (COM (2001) 581) e a Directiva IPPC 23/10/2001 - COM (2001) 581 - Proposta de directiva-quadro relativa ao comércio de emissões de gases com efeito de estufa dentro da Comunidade Europeia.

Reacção da Comissão à leitura da proposta no Conselho e no Parlamento (incluindo a posição comum do Conselho)

18/07/2003 - COM (2003) 463 - Parecer da Comissão sobre as alterações do Parlamento Europeu à posição comum do Conselho respeitante à proposta de directiva do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho 20/06/2003 - COM (2003) 364 - Comunicação da Comissão ao Parlamento Europeu relativa à posição comum do Conselho sobre a adopção de uma directiva que estabelece um regime de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa na Comunidade e altera a Directiva 96/61 / CE 18/03/2003 - Posição Comum ) N. º 28/2003 - Posição comum do Conselho sobre a adopção de uma directiva que estabelece um regime de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa na Comunidade e que altera a Directiva 96/61 / CE do Conselho 27/11/2002 - COM (2002) 680 - Proposta alterada para uma directiva do Parlamento Europeu e do Conselho que estabelece um regime de comércio de licenças de emissão de gases com efeito de estufa na Comunidade e que altera a Directiva 96/61 / CE do Conselho Faq.

Abra todas as perguntas.

Perguntas e Respostas sobre o Sistema de Comércio de Emissões da UE revisado (dezembro de 2008)

Qual é o objetivo do comércio de emissões?

O objectivo do Sistema de Comércio de Emissões da UE (EU ETS) é ajudar os Estados-Membros da UE a cumprir os seus compromissos de limitar ou reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa de forma rentável. Permitir que as empresas participantes compram ou vendam permissões de emissão significa que os cortes de emissão podem ser alcançados ao menos custo.

O RCLE da UE é a pedra angular da estratégia da UE para lutar contra as alterações climáticas. É o primeiro sistema de comércio internacional de emissões de CO 2 no mundo e está em operação desde 2005. A partir de janeiro de 2008, aplica-se não apenas aos 27 Estados-Membros da UE, mas também aos outros três membros da Área Econômica Européia - Noruega, Islândia e Liechtenstein. Atualmente, abrange mais de 10.000 instalações nos setores de energia e industrial, que são coletivamente responsáveis por cerca de metade das emissões de CO 2 da UE e 40% de suas emissões totais de gases de efeito estufa. Uma emenda à Diretiva EU ETS, acordada em julho de 2008, trará o setor da aviação para o sistema a partir de 2012.

Como funciona o comércio de emissões?

O ETS da UE é um sistema de "capitalização e comércio", ou seja, indica que ele limita o nível geral de emissões permitido, mas, dentro desse limite, permite que os participantes no sistema compram e vendam as licenças conforme exigirem. Essas provisões são a "moeda" comercial comum no coração do sistema. Um subsídio dá ao titular o direito de emitir uma tonelada de CO 2 ou a quantidade equivalente de outro gás com efeito de estufa. O limite do número total de licenças cria escassez no mercado.

No primeiro e segundo período de negociação ao abrigo do regime, os Estados-Membros tiveram de elaborar planos nacionais de atribuição (NAPs) que determinassem o seu nível total de emissões de ETS e quantos subsídios de emissão cada instalação em seu país recebe. No final de cada ano, as instalações devem render subsídios equivalentes às suas emissões. As empresas que mantêm suas emissões abaixo do nível de suas licenças podem vender seus excedentes de licenças. Aqueles que enfrentam dificuldade em manter suas emissões de acordo com suas licenças têm a opção de tomar medidas para reduzir suas próprias emissões - como investir em tecnologia mais eficiente ou usar fontes de energia menos intensivas em carbono - ou comprar os subsídios extras que precisam no mercado , Ou uma combinação de ambos. Essas escolhas provavelmente serão determinadas por custos relativos. Dessa forma, as emissões são reduzidas onde quer que seja mais econômico fazê-lo.

Há quanto tempo o EU ETS está operando?

O ETS da UE foi lançado em 1 de Janeiro de 2005. O primeiro período de negociação foi de três anos até o final de 2007 e foi uma fase de "aprendizagem por fazer" para se preparar para o segundo período de negociação crucial. O segundo período de negociação começou em 1 de Janeiro de 2008 e é executado por cinco anos até o final de 2012. A importância do segundo período de negociação decorre do facto de coincidir com o primeiro período de compromisso do Protocolo de Quioto, durante o qual a UE e outros os países industrializados devem atingir seus objetivos para limitar ou reduzir as emissões de gases de efeito estufa. Para o segundo período comercial, as emissões do ETS da UE limitaram-se a cerca de 6,5% abaixo dos níveis de 2005, a fim de garantir que a UE como um todo e os Estados-Membros individualmente cumprem os compromissos de Quioto.

Quais são as principais lições aprendidas com a experiência até agora?

O EU ETS colocou um preço sobre o carbono e provou que o comércio de emissões de gases de efeito estufa funciona. O primeiro período comercial estabeleceu com sucesso a livre negociação de licenças de emissão em toda a UE, implementou a infra-estrutura necessária e desenvolveu um mercado de carbono dinâmico. O benefício ambiental da primeira fase pode ser limitado devido à alocação excessiva de subsídios em alguns Estados-Membros e em alguns setores, devido principalmente à dependência das projeções de emissões antes que os dados de emissão verificados estejam disponíveis no âmbito do RCLE da UE. Quando a publicação de dados de emissões verificadas para 2005 destacou essa "sobreavaliação", o mercado reagiu como seria esperado pela redução do preço de mercado das licenças. A disponibilidade de dados de emissões verificadas permitiu à Comissão garantir que o limite das dotações nacionais na segunda fase se estabeleça em um nível que resulte em reduções reais de emissões.

Além de sublinhar a necessidade de dados verificados, a experiência até agora demonstrou que uma maior harmonização dentro do RCLE da UE é imperativa para garantir que a UE alcance os seus objetivos de redução de emissões pelo menos com custos e com distorções competitivas mínimas. A necessidade de mais harmonização é mais clara no que diz respeito ao modo como é estabelecido o limite para as licenças de emissão globais.

Os dois primeiros períodos de negociação também mostram que métodos nacionais amplamente diferentes para alocação de licenças para instalações ameaçam uma concorrência leal no mercado interno. Além disso, é necessária uma maior harmonização, esclarecimento e aperfeiçoamento no que se refere ao alcance do sistema, ao acesso a créditos de projetos de redução de emissões fora da UE, as condições para vincular o ETS da UE aos sistemas de comércio de emissões em outros lugares e o monitoramento, verificação e requisitos de relatórios.

Quais são as principais alterações ao ETS da UE e a partir de quando serão aplicadas?

As mudanças de design acordadas serão aplicadas a partir do terceiro período de negociação, ou seja, janeiro de 2013. Enquanto os trabalhos preparatórios serão iniciados imediatamente, as regras aplicáveis não serão alteradas até janeiro de 2013 para garantir a manutenção da estabilidade regulatória.

O EU ETS no terceiro período será um sistema mais eficiente, mais harmonizado e mais justo.

O aumento da eficiência é conseguido através de um período de comércio mais longo (8 anos em vez de 5 anos), um limite de emissões robusto e decrescente anual (redução de 21% em 2020 comparado a 2005) e um aumento substancial na quantidade de leilões. 4% na fase 2 para mais da metade na fase 3).

Foi acordada uma maior harmonização em muitos domínios, incluindo no que diz respeito à fixação de limites (um limite máximo a nível da UE em vez dos limites nacionais nas fases 1 e 2) e às regras para a atribuição gratuita a título transitório.

A equidade do sistema foi substancialmente aumentada pela mudança para as regras de atribuição gratuita da UE para as instalações industriais e pela introdução de um mecanismo de redistribuição que permite aos novos Estados-Membros licitar mais subsídios.

Como o texto final se compara à proposta inicial da Comissão?

Os objectivos de clima e energia acordados pelo Conselho Europeu da Primavera de 2007 foram mantidos e a arquitectura geral da proposta da Comissão sobre o RCLE da UE permanece intacta. Ou seja, haverá um limite máximo da UE sobre o número de licenças de emissão e este limite diminuirá anualmente ao longo de uma linha de tendência linear, que continuará para além do final do terceiro período comercial (2013-2020). A principal diferença em relação à proposta é que o leilão de licenças será introduzido gradualmente.

Quais são as principais mudanças em relação à proposta da Comissão?

Em resumo, as principais mudanças que foram feitas na proposta são as seguintes:

Alguns Estados-Membros podem beneficiar de uma derrogação facultativa e temporária da regra segundo a qual as licenças de emissão devem ser atribuídas gratuitamente a geradores de eletricidade a partir de 2013. Esta opção de derrogação está disponível para os Estados-Membros que cumpram certas condições relacionadas à interconectividade de sua eletricidade grade, participação de um único combustível fóssil na produção de eletricidade e PIB / habitação em relação à média da UE-27. Além disso, o montante de licenças gratuitas que um Estado-Membro pode atribuir às centrais eléctricas está limitado a 70% das emissões de dióxido de carbono das instalações pertinentes na fase 1 e diminui nos anos seguintes. Além disso, a alocação gratuita na fase 3 só pode ser dada às usinas que estejam operacionais ou em construção até o final de 2008. Veja a resposta à pergunta 15 abaixo. Haverá mais detalhes na directiva sobre os critérios a serem utilizados para determinar os setores ou subsectores considerados expostos a um risco significativo de vazamento de carbono e uma data anterior à publicação da lista da Comissão desses setores (31 de dezembro 2009). Além disso, sujeito a revisão quando um acordo internacional satisfatório for alcançado, as instalações em todas as indústrias expostas receberão 100% de licenças gratuitas na medida em que usem a tecnologia mais eficiente. A alocação gratuita para a indústria é limitada à participação das emissões dessas emissões nas emissões totais em 2005 a 2007. O número total de licenças atribuídas gratuitamente às instalações nos setores da indústria diminuirá anualmente de acordo com o declínio do limite de emissões. Os Estados-Membros podem também compensar certas instalações para os custos de CO 2 repercutidos nos preços da electricidade se os custos de CO 2 puderem, de outro modo, expô-los ao risco de vazamento de carbono. A Comissão comprometeu-se a modificar as orientações comunitárias relativas aos auxílios estatais a favor do ambiente a este respeito. Veja a resposta à questão 15 abaixo. O nível de leilão de licenças para a indústria não exposta aumentará de forma linear, conforme proposto pela Comissão, mas, em vez de atingir 100% até 2020, atingirá 70%, com vista a atingir 100% até 2027. Conforme previsto em Na proposta da Comissão, 10% das licenças para leilão serão redistribuídas de Estados-Membros com elevado rendimento per capita para pessoas com baixo rendimento per capita, a fim de reforçar a capacidade financeira destes últimos para investir em tecnologias amigáveis com o clima. Foi adicionada uma provisão para outro mecanismo redistributivo de 2% das licenças de leilão para levar em consideração os Estados-Membros que em 2005 alcançaram uma redução de pelo menos 20% nas emissões de gases de efeito estufa em relação ao ano de referência estabelecido pelo Protocolo de Quioto. A participação das receitas de leilão que os Estados-Membros recomendam utilizar para combater e adaptar-se às alterações climáticas, principalmente na UE, mas também nos países em desenvolvimento, é aumentada de 20% para 50%. O texto fornece um complemento para o nível de uso permitido proposto de créditos JI / CDM no cenário de 20% para os operadores existentes que receberam os orçamentos mais baixos para importar e usar esses créditos em relação às alocações e acesso aos créditos no período 2008-2012. Novos setores, novos entrantes nos períodos 2013-2020 e 2008-2012 também poderão usar créditos. O montante total de créditos que podem ser utilizados não excederá, no entanto, 50% da redução entre 2008 e 2020. Com base em uma redução mais rigorosa das emissões no contexto de um acordo internacional satisfatório, a Comissão poderia permitir o acesso adicional às RCE e UREs para os operadores do regime comunitário. Veja a resposta à pergunta 20 abaixo. O produto do leilão de 300 milhões de licenças da reserva dos novos participantes será utilizado para apoiar até 12 projetos e projetos de demonstração de captura e armazenamento de carbono que demonstram tecnologias inovadoras de energia renovável. Uma série de condições são anexadas a este mecanismo de financiamento. Veja a resposta à questão 30 abaixo. A possibilidade de excluir as pequenas instalações de combustão, desde que estejam sujeitas a medidas equivalentes, tenha sido ampliada para cobrir todas as pequenas instalações, independentemente da atividade, o limite de emissão foi aumentado de 10.000 para 25.000 toneladas de CO 2 por ano e o limite de capacidade que instalações de combustão tem que cumprir, além disso foi elevado de 25MW para 35MW. Com esses limiares aumentados, a participação das emissões cobertas que poderiam ser excluídas do sistema de comércio de emissões torna-se significativa e, consequentemente, uma provisão foi adicionada para permitir uma redução correspondente do limite máximo da UE em subsídios.

Ainda haverá planos nacionais de alocação (NAPs)?

Não. Nos seus NAPs para os primeiros períodos de negociação (2005-2007) e segundo (2008-2012), os Estados-Membros determinaram a quantidade total de licenças a emitir - o limite - e a forma como estes seriam atribuídos às instalações em causa. Esta abordagem gerou diferenças significativas nas regras de alocação, criando um incentivo para que cada Estado-Membro favoreça o seu próprio setor e tenha levado a uma grande complexidade.

A partir do terceiro período de negociação, haverá um único limite para a UE e as licenças serão alocadas com base em regras harmonizadas. Os planos de alocação nacionais não serão mais necessários.

Como o limite de emissão na fase 3 será determinado?

As regras para o cálculo do limite da UE são as seguintes:

A partir de 2013, o número total de licenças diminuirá anualmente de forma linear. O ponto de partida desta linha é a quantidade total média de licenças (limite de fase 2) a ser emitido pelos Estados Membros para o período 2008-12, ajustado para refletir o alcance ampliado do sistema a partir de 2013, bem como quaisquer pequenas instalações que o Membro Estados optaram por excluir. O fator linear pelo qual o montante anual deve diminuir é de 1,74% em relação ao limite da fase 2.

O ponto de partida para determinar o fator linear de 1,74% é a redução global de 20% dos gases com efeito de estufa em relação a 1990, o que equivale a uma redução de 14% em relação a 2005. No entanto, é necessária uma redução maior do ETS da UE porque é mais barato para reduzir as emissões nos setores ETS. A divisão que minimiza o custo total de redução equivale a:

uma redução de 21% nas emissões do setor ETS da UE em comparação com 2005 até 2020; uma redução de cerca de 10% em relação a 2005 para os sectores que não são abrangidos pelo RCLE da UE.

A redução de 21% em 2020 resulta em um limite de ETS em 2020 de um máximo de 1720 milhões de subsídios e implica um limite médio de fase 3 (2013 a 2020) de cerca de 1846 milhões de subsídios e uma redução de 11% em relação ao limite de fase 2.

Todos os números absolutos indicados correspondem à cobertura no início do segundo período de negociação e, portanto, não levam em conta a aviação, que será adicionada em 2012, e outros setores que serão adicionados na fase 3.

Os valores finais para os limites anuais de emissões na fase 3 serão determinados e publicados pela Comissão até 30 de Setembro de 2010.

Como o limite de emissão para além da fase 3 será determinado?

O fator linear de 1,74% usado para determinar o limite da fase 3 continuará a ser aplicado além do final do período de negociação em 2020 e determinará o limite para o quarto período de negociação (2021 a 2028) e além. Pode ser revisto até 2025, o mais tardar. De fato, as reduções significativas de emissões de 60% a 80% em relação a 1990 serão necessárias até 2050 para atingir o objetivo estratégico de limitar o aumento da temperatura média global para não mais de 2 ° C acima dos níveis pré-industriais.

Será estabelecido um limite máximo de licenças de emissão a nível da UE para cada ano. Isso reduziria a flexibilidade para as instalações em questão?

Não, a flexibilidade para as instalações não será reduzida. Em qualquer ano, os subsídios a serem leilados e distribuídos devem ser emitidos pelas autoridades competentes até 28 de fevereiro. A última data para os operadores renderem subsídios é 30 de abril do ano seguinte ao ano em que as emissões ocorreram. Assim, os operadores recebem subsídios para o ano em curso antes de terem que entregar subsídios para cobrir suas emissões para o ano anterior. Os subsídios permanecem válidos durante todo o período de negociação e quaisquer subsídios excedentes agora podem ser "depositados" para uso em períodos de negociação subsequentes. Nesse aspecto, nada mudará.

O sistema permanecerá com base nos períodos de negociação, mas o terceiro período de negociação durará oito anos, de 2013 a 2020, em oposição a cinco anos para a segunda fase de 2008 a 2012.

Para o segundo período de negociação, os Estados-Membros geralmente decidiram atribuir quantidades iguais iguais de subsídios para cada ano. A diminuição linear anual de 2013 corresponderá melhor às tendências de emissões esperadas ao longo do período.

Quais são os valores iniciais preliminares do ETS para o período de 2013 a 2020?

Os valores iniciais preliminares são os seguintes:

Estes valores baseiam-se no âmbito do RCLE, conforme aplicável na fase 2 (2008 a 2012), e nas decisões da Comissão relativas aos planos nacionais de atribuição de licenças para a fase 2, que ascendem a 2083 milhões de toneladas. Estes números serão ajustados por vários motivos. Em primeiro lugar, será feito o ajuste para levar em consideração as extensões do escopo na fase 2, desde que os Estados Membros comprovem e verifiquem suas emissões resultantes dessas extensões. Em segundo lugar, o ajuste será feito com relação a extensões adicionais do escopo do ETS no terceiro período de negociação. Em terceiro lugar, qualquer opt-out de pequenas instalações levará a uma redução correspondente do limite. Em quarto lugar, os números não levam em conta a inclusão da aviação, nem as emissões da Noruega, da Islândia e do Liechtenstein.

Os subsídios ainda serão alocados gratuitamente?

Sim. As instalações industriais receberão alocação gratuita transitória. E nos Estados-Membros elegíveis para a derrogação opcional, as centrais eléctricas podem, se o Estado-Membro assim o decidir, receber também licenças gratuitas. Estima-se que pelo menos metade dos subsídios disponíveis a partir de 2013 serão leiloados.

Embora a grande maioria das licenças de emissão tenha sido atribuída gratuitamente às instalações no primeiro e segundo períodos de negociação, a Comissão propôs que o leilão de licenças de emissão se tornasse o princípio básico para a alocação. Isso ocorre porque os leilões garantem melhor a eficiência, transparência e simplicidade do sistema e criam o maior incentivo para investimentos em uma economia de baixo carbono. It best complies with the “polluter pays principle” and avoids giving windfall profits to certain sectors that have passed on the notional cost of allowances to their customers despite receiving them for free.

How will allowances be handed out for free?

By 31 December 2010, the Commission will adopt EU-wide rules, which will be developed under a committee procedure (“Comitology”). These rules will fully harmonise allocations and thus all firms across the EU with the same or similar activities will be subject to the same rules. The rules will ensure as far as possible that the allocation promotes carbon-efficient technologies. The adopted rules provide that to the extent feasible, allocations are to be based on so-called benchmarks, e. g. a number of allowances per quantity of historical output. Such rules reward operators that have taken early action to reduce greenhouse gases, better reflect the polluter pays principle and give stronger incentives to reduce emissions, as allocations would no longer depend on historical emissions. All allocations are to be determined before the start of the third trading period and no ex-post adjustments will be allowed.

Which installations will receive free allocations and which will not? How will negative impacts on competitiveness be avoided?

Taking into account their ability to pass on the increased cost of emission allowances, full auctioning is the rule from 2013 onwards for electricity generators. However, Member States who fulfil certain conditions relating to their interconnectivity or their share of fossil fuels in electricity production and GDP per capita in relation to the EU-27 average, have the option to temporarily deviate from this rule with respect to existing power plants. The auctioning rate in 2013 is to be at least 30% in relation to emissions in the first period and has to increase progressively to 100% no later than 2020. If the option is applied, the Member State has to undertake to invest in improving and upgrading of the infrastructure, in clean technologies and in diversification of their energy mix and sources of supply for an amount to the extent possible equal to the market value of the free allocation.

In other sectors, allocations for free will be phased out progressively from 2013, with Member States agreeing to start at 20% auctioning in 2013, increasing to 70% auctioning in 2020 with a view to reaching 100% in 2027. However, an exception will be made for installations in sectors that are found to be exposed to a significant risk of 'carbon leakage'. This risk could occur if the EU ETS increased production costs so much that companies decided to relocate production to areas outside the EU that are not subject to comparable emission constraints. The Commission will determine the sectors concerned by 31 December 2009. To do this, the Commission will assess inter alia whether the direct and indirect additional production costs induced by the implementation of the ETS Directive as a proportion of gross value added exceed 5% and whether the total value of its exports and imports divided by the total value of its turnover and imports exceeds 10%. If the result for either of these criteria exceeds 30%, the sector would also be considered to be exposed to a significant risk of carbon leakage. Installations in these sectors would receive 100% of their share in the annually declining total quantity of allowances for free. The share of these industries' emissions is determined in relation to total ETS emissions in 2005 to 2007.

CO 2 costs passed on in electricity prices could also expose certain installations to the risk of carbon leakage. In order to avoid such risk, Member States may grant a compensation with respect to such costs. In the absence of an international agreement on climate change, the Commission has undertaken to modify the Community guidelines on state aid for environmental protection in this respect.

Under an international agreement which ensures that competitors in other parts of the world bear a comparable cost, the risk of carbon leakage may well be negligible. Therefore, by 30 June 2010, the Commission will carry out an in-depth assessment of the situation of energy-intensive industry and the risk of carbon leakage, in the light of the outcome of the international negotiations and also taking into account any binding sectoral agreements that may have been concluded. The report will be accompanied by any proposals considered appropriate. These could potentially include maintaining or adjusting the proportion of allowances received free of charge to industrial installations that are particularly exposed to global competition or including importers of the products concerned in the ETS.

Who will organise the auctions and how will they be carried out?

Member States will be responsible for ensuring that the allowances given to them are auctioned. Each Member State has to decide whether it wants to develop its own auctioning infrastructure and platform or whether it wants to cooperate with other Member States to develop regional or EU-wide solutions. The distribution of the auctioning rights to Member States is largely based on emissions in phase 1 of the EU ETS, but a part of the rights will be redistributed from richer Member States to poorer ones to take account of the lower GDP per head and higher prospects for growth and emissions among the latter. It is still the case that 10% of the rights to auction allowances will be redistributed from Member States with high per capita income to those with low per capita income in order to strengthen the financial capacity of the latter to invest in climate friendly technologies. However, a provision has been added for another redistributive mechanism of 2% to take into account Member States which in 2005 had achieved a reduction of at least 20% in greenhouse gas emissions compared with the reference year set by the Kyoto Protocol. Nine Member States benefit from this provision.

Any auctioning must respect the rules of the internal market and must therefore be open to any potential buyer under non-discriminatory conditions. By 30 June 2010, the Commission will adopt a Regulation (through the comitology procedure) that will provide the appropriate rules and conditions for ensuring efficient, coordinated auctions without disturbing the allowance market.

How many allowances will each Member State auction and how is this amount determined?

All allowances which are not allocated free of charge will be auctioned. A total of 88% of allowances to be auctioned by each Member State is distributed on the basis of the Member State's share of historic emissions under the EU ETS. For purposes of solidarity and growth, 12% of the total quantity is distributed in a way that takes into account GDP per capita and the achievements under the Kyoto-Protocol.

Which sectors and gases are covered as of 2013?

The ETS covers installations performing specified activities. Since the start it has covered, above certain capacity thresholds, power stations and other combustion plants, oil refineries, coke ovens, iron and steel plants and factories making cement, glass, lime, bricks, ceramics, pulp, paper and board. As for greenhouse gases, it currently only covers carbon dioxide emissions, with the exception of the Netherlands, which has opted in emissions from nitrous oxide.

As from 2013, the scope of the ETS will be extended to also include other sectors and greenhouse gases. CO 2 emissions from petrochemicals, ammonia and aluminium will be included, as will N2O emissions from the production of nitric, adipic and glyocalic acid production and perfluorocarbons from the aluminium sector. The capture, transport and geological storage of all greenhouse gas emissions will also be covered. These sectors will receive allowances free of charge according to EU-wide rules, in the same way as other industrial sectors already covered.

As of 2012, aviation will also be included in the EU ETS.

Will small installations be excluded from the scope?

A large number of installations emitting relatively low amounts of CO 2 are currently covered by the ETS and concerns have been raised over the cost-effectiveness of their inclusion. As from 2013, Member States will be allowed to remove these installations from the ETS under certain conditions. The installations concerned are those whose reported emissions were lower than 25 000 tonnes of CO 2 equivalent in each of the 3 years preceding the year of application. For combustion installations, an additional capacity threshold of 35MW applies. In addition Member States are given the possibility to exclude installations operated by hospitals. The installations may be excluded from the ETS only if they will be covered by measures that will achieve an equivalent contribution to emission reductions.

How many emission credits from third countries will be allowed?

For the second trading period, Member States allowed their operators to use significant quantities of credits generated by emission-saving projects undertaken in third countries to cover part of their emissions in the same way as they use ETS allowances. The revised Directive extends the rights to use these credits for the third trading period and allows a limited additional quantity to be used in such a way that the overall use of credits is limited to 50% of the EU-wide reductions over the period 2008-2020. For existing installations, and excluding new sectors within the scope, this will represent a total level of access of approximately 1.6 billion credits over the period 2008-2020. In practice, this means that existing operators will be able to use credits up to a minimum of 11% of their allocation during the period 2008-2012, while a top-up is foreseen for operators with the lowest sum of free allocation and allowed use of credits in the 2008-2012 period. New sectors and new entrants in the third trading period will have a guaranteed minimum access of 4.5% of their verified emissions during the period 2013-2020. For the aviation sector, the minimum access will be 1.5%. The precise percentages will be determined through comitology.

These projects must be officially recognised under the Kyoto Protocol’s Joint Implementation (JI) mechanism (covering projects carried out in countries with an emissions reduction target under the Protocol) or Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (for projects undertaken in developing countries). Credits from JI projects are known as Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) while those from CDM projects are called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs).

On the quality side only credits from project types eligible for use in the EU trading scheme during the period 2008-2012 will be accepted in the period 2013-2020. Furthermore, from 1 January 2013 measures may be applied to restrict the use of specific credits from project types. Such a quality control mechanism is needed to assure the environmental and economic integrity of future project types.

To create greater flexibility, and in the absence of an international agreement being concluded by 31 December 2009, credits could be used in accordance with agreements concluded with third countries. The use of these credits should however not increase the overall number beyond 50% of the required reductions. Such agreements would not be required for new projects that started from 2013 onwards in Least Developed Countries.

Based on a stricter emissions reduction in the context of a satisfactory international agreement , additional access to credits could be allowed, as well as the use of additional types of project credits or other mechanisms created under the international agreement. However, once an international agreement has been reached, from January 2013 onwards only credits from projects in third countries that have ratified the agreement or from additional types of project approved by the Commission will be eligible for use in the Community scheme.

Will it be possible to use credits from carbon ‘sinks’ like forests?

No. Before making its proposal, the Commission analysed the possibility of allowing credits from certain types of land use, land-use change and forestry (‘LULUCF’) projects which absorb carbon from the atmosphere. It concluded that doing so could undermine the environmental integrity of the EU ETS, for the following reasons:

LULUCF projects cannot physically deliver permanent emissions reductions. Insufficient solutions have been developed to deal with the uncertainties, non-permanence of carbon storage and potential emissions 'leakage' problems arising from such projects. The temporary and reversible nature of such activities would pose considerable risks in a company-based trading system and impose great liability risks on Member States. The inclusion of LULUCF projects in the ETS would require a quality of monitoring and reporting comparable to the monitoring and reporting of emissions from installations currently covered by the system. This is not available at present and is likely to incur costs which would substantially reduce the attractiveness of including such projects. The simplicity, transparency and predictability of the ETS would be considerably reduced. Moreover, the sheer quantity of potential credits entering the system could undermine the functioning of the carbon market unless their role were limited, in which case their potential benefits would become marginal.

The Commission, the Council and the European Parliament believe that global deforestation can be better addressed through other instruments. For example, using part of the proceeds from auctioning allowances in the EU ETS could generate additional means to invest in LULUCF activities both inside and outside the EU, and may provide a model for future expansion. In this respect the Commission has proposed to set up the Global Forest Carbon Mechanism that would be a performance-based system for financing reductions in deforestation levels in developing countries.

Besides those already mentioned, are there other credits that could be used in the revised ETS?

Sim. Projects in EU Member States which reduce greenhouse gas emissions not covered by the ETS could issue credits. These Community projects would need to be managed according to common EU provisions set up by the Commission in order to be tradable throughout the system. Such provisions would be adopted only for projects that cannot be realised through inclusion in the ETS. The provisions will seek to ensure that credits from Community projects do not result in double-counting of emission reductions nor impede other policy measures to reduce emissions not covered by the ETS, and that they are based on simple, easily administered rules.

Are there measures in place to ensure that the price of allowances won't fall sharply during the third trading period?

A stable and predictable regulatory framework is vital for market stability. The revised Directive makes the regulatory framework as predictable as possible in order to boost stability and rule out policy-induced volatility. Important elements in this respect are the determination of the cap on emissions in the Directive well in advance of the start of the trading period, a linear reduction factor for the cap on emissions which continues to apply also beyond 2020 and the extension of the trading period from 5 to 8 years. The sharp fall in the allowance price during the first trading period was due to over-allocation of allowances which could not be “banked” for use in the second trading period. For the second and subsequent trading periods, Member States are obliged to allow the banking of allowances from one period to the next and therefore the end of one trading period is not expected to have any impact on the price.

A new provision will apply as of 2013 in case of excessive price fluctuations in the allowance market. If, for more than six consecutive months, the allowance price is more than three times the average price of allowances during the two preceding years on the European market, the Commission will convene a meeting with Member States. If it is found that the price evolution does not correspond to market fundamentals, the Commission may either allow Member States to bring forward the auctioning of a part of the quantity to be auctioned, or allow them to auction up to 25% of the remaining allowances in the new entrant reserve.

The price of allowances is determined by supply and demand and reflects fundamental factors like economic growth, fuel prices, rainfall and wind (availability of renewable energy) and temperature (demand for heating and cooling) etc. A degree of uncertainty is inevitable for such factors. The markets, however, allow participants to hedge the risks that may result from changes in allowances prices.

Are there any provisions for linking the EU ETS to other emissions trading systems?

Sim. One of the key means to reduce emissions more cost-effectively is to enhance and further develop the global carbon market. The Commission sees the EU ETS as an important building block for the development of a global network of emission trading systems. Linking other national or regional cap-and-trade emissions trading systems to the EU ETS can create a bigger market, potentially lowering the aggregate cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The increased liquidity and reduced price volatility that this would entail would improve the functioning of markets for emission allowances. This may lead to a global network of trading systems in which participants, including legal entities, can buy emission allowances to fulfil their respective reduction commitments.

The EU is keen to work with the new US Administration to build a transatlantic and indeed global carbon market to act as the motor of a concerted international push to combat climate change.

While the original Directive allows for linking the EU ETS with other industrialised countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the new rules allow for linking with any country or administrative entity (such as a state or group of states under a federal system) which has established a compatible mandatory cap-and-trade system whose design elements would not undermine the environmental integrity of the EU ETS. Where such systems cap absolute emissions, there would be mutual recognition of allowances issued by them and the EU ETS.

What is a Community registry and how does it work?

Registries are standardised electronic databases ensuring the accurate accounting of the issuance, holding, transfer and cancellation of emission allowances. As a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol in its own right, the Community is also obliged to maintain a registry. This is the Community Registry, which is distinct from the registries of Member States. Allowances issued from 1 January 2013 onwards will be held in the Community registry instead of in national registries.

Will there be any changes to monitoring, reporting and verification requirements?

The Commission will adopt a new Regulation (through the comitology procedure) by 31 December 2011 governing the monitoring and reporting of emissions from the activities listed in Annex I of the Directive. A separate Regulation on the verification of emission reports and the accreditation of verifiers should specify conditions for accreditation, mutual recognition and cancellation of accreditation for verifiers, and for supervision and peer review as appropriate.

What provision will be made for new entrants into the market?

Five percent of the total quantity of allowances will be put into a reserve for new installations or airlines that enter the system after 2013 (“new entrants”). The allocations from this reserve should mirror the allocations to corresponding existing installations.

A part of the new entrant reserve, amounting to 300 million allowances, will be made available to support the investments in up to 12 demonstration projects using the carbon capture and storage technology and demonstration projects using innovative renewable energy technologies. There should be a fair geographical distribution of the projects.

In principle, any allowances remaining in the reserve shall be distributed to Member States for auctioning. The distribution key shall take into account the level to which installations in Member States have benefited from this reserve.

What has been agreed with respect to the financing of the 12 carbon capture and storage demonstration projects requested by a previous European Council?

The European Parliament's Environment Committee tabled an amendment to the EU ETS Directive requiring allowances in the new entrant reserve to be set aside in order to co-finance up to 12 demonstration projects as requested by the European Council in spring 2007. This amendment has later been extended to include also innovative renewable energy technologies that are not commercially viable yet. Projects shall be selected on the basis of objective and transparent criteria that include requirements for knowledge sharing. Support shall be given from the proceeds of these allowances via Member States and shall be complementary to substantial co-financing by the operator of the installation. No project shall receive support via this mechanism that exceeds 15% of the total number of allowances (i. e. 45 million allowances) available for this purpose. The Member State may choose to co-finance the project as well, but will in any case transfer the market value of the attributed allowances to the operator, who will not receive any allowances.

A total of 300 million allowances will therefore be set aside until 2015 for this purpose.

What is the role of an international agreement and its potential impact on EU ETS?

When an international agreement is reached, the Commission shall submit a report to the European Parliament and the Council assessing the nature of the measures agreed upon in the international agreement and their implications, in particular with respect to the risk of carbon leakage. On the basis of this report, the Commission shall then adopt a legislative proposal amending the present Directive as appropriate.

For the effects on the use of credits from Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism projects, please see the reply to question 20.

What are the next steps?

Member States have to bring into force the legal instruments necessary to comply with certain provisions of the revised Directive by 31 December 2009. This concerns the collection of duly substantiated and verified emissions data from installations that will only be covered by the EU ETS as from 2013, and the national lists of installations and the allocation to each one. For the remaining provisions, the national laws, regulations and administrative provisions only have to be ready by 31 December 2012.

The Commission has already started the work on implementation. For example, the collection and analysis of data for use in relation to carbon leakage is ongoing (list of sectors due end 2009). Work is also ongoing to prepare the Regulation on timing, administration and other aspects of auctioning (due by June 2010), the harmonised allocation rules (due end 2010) and the two Regulations on monitoring and reporting of emissions and verification of emissions and accreditation of verifiers (due end 2011).

The effects and side‐effects of the EU emissions trading scheme.

As many countries, regions, cities, and states implement emissions trading policies to limit CO 2 emissions, they turn to the European Union's experience with its emissions trading scheme since 2005. As a prominent example of a regional carbon pricing policy, it has attracted significant attention from scholars interested in evaluating the effectiveness and impacts of emissions trading. Among the key difficulties faced by researchers is isolating the effect of the EU ETS on industry operation, investment, and pricing decisions from other dominant factors such as the financial crisis, and establishing credible counterfactual scenarios against this backdrop. This article reviews the evidence, focusing on two intended effects (emissions abatement and investment in low‐carbon technologies) as well as two side‐effects (profits and price impacts). We find that the EU ETS cut CO 2 emissions by 40–80 million t/year on average, or 2–4% of the total capped, while the evidence on innovation and investment impacts is inconclusive. There is strong empirical support for cost‐pass through in electricity (20–100%), in diesel and gasoline (>50%), and some preliminary evidence of pricing power in other industrial sectors. Windfall profits have amounted to billions of Euros, and concentrated in a few large companies.

This article is categorized under:

Climate Economics > Economics of Mitigation The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance.

Other documents.

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Apr 2012 - Behavioural Climate Change Mitigation Options and Their Appropriate Inclusion in Quantitative Longer Term Policy Scenarios Main Report Transport Domain Report Housing Domain Report Food Domain Report Technical Report on the appropriate inclusion of results of the analysis in model-based quantitative scenarios FAQ.

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Questions and Answers on a Roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050 (March 2011)

Why has the Commission developed a Roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050?

There are several reasons for developing the Roadmap now.

Scientific evidence indicates that global warming needs to be limited to less than 2°C above the temperature in pre-industrial times (around 1.2°C above today's level) if the world is to have a fair chance of preventing severe climate change. This temperature ceiling has been endorsed by the international community.

Without firm global action to limit climate change, temperatures could increase by 2°C or more by 2050 and 4°C or more by 2100. To stay below 2°C every country will have to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), but developed countries will need to take the lead by targetting a cut of 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050. The European Council and the European Parliament have endorsed this target range as an EU objective in the context of developed countries as a group making the reductions needed.

Achieving these deep emission cuts will require a transition to a climate-friendly, low carbon economy. With the 'climate and energy package' [1] of legislation adopted in 2009 the EU already has a binding greenhouse gas reduction target for 2020 and a fully fledged set of policies to deliver this. The EU needs to start working now on long-term strategies to move beyond this up to 2050. The Roadmap provides guidance on how this transition can be achieved in the most cost-effective way. It gives insights into what type of technologies and actions need to be implemented and what types of policies the EU will need to develop over the next 10 years and beyond.

The European Commission has also taken the initiative because leading the global transition to a low carbon and resource-efficient economy will have multiple benefits for the EU. The Roadmap is a key building block of the 'resource efficient Europe' flagship initiative set up under the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. Maintaining its leading position in the development and implementation of innovative low carbon technologies will allow Europe to tap new sources of growth and to preserve jobs and create new ones. Building a low carbon economy will also reduce the EU's vulnerability to potential future oil shocks and other energy security concerns, substantially cut our energy import bill, and reduce air pollution and its associated costs.

At the UN climate conference in Cancún last December, it was agreed that low carbon development strategies are indispensable to fighting climate change. The Roadmap is the first step towards the development of such a strategy for the EU. By preparing the Roadmap the EU can help to stimulate the international climate negotiations in the run-up to the UN climate conference to be held in Durban, South Africa, at the end of this year.

What economic analysis was carried out to prepare the Roadmap?

The Roadmap is based on comprehensive economic modelling and scenario analysis, at both global and EU level, of how the EU can shift towards a low carbon economy by 2050. This objective is analysed against the backdrop of continued population growth, rising global wealth and varying global trends in terms of climate action, energy and technological development.

While there are always uncertainties relating to long term projections, the comprehensive nature of the modelling exercise undertaken, including integration of a wide range of potential future scenarios, makes the findings robust.

How much has the EU already reduced its emissions?

In 2009 greenhouse gas emissions from the 27 member states are estimated to have been around 16% below their 1990 levels [2] Over the same period the EU economy grew by around 40%. The EU has thus succeeded in 'decoupling' the trend in its emissions (downward) from its economic development (upward).

Source: EEA, SOER 2010, European Environment State and Outlook 2010, page 20.

What emission reductions will be needed in future?

The Roadmap recommends that the EU meet its emissions reduction objective of 80% to 95% largely through internal measures. Emissions should be cut by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 through domestic reduction measures alone. This focus on domestic reductions reflects an expectation that the supply of cheap international credits to offset emissions is likely to shrink by mid-century if all countries take more action on climate change.

The analysis shows that the cost-efficient pathway to an 80% 'domestic' reduction in 2050 calls for cuts, through domestic action alone, of 25% in 2020, 40% in 2030 and 60% in 2040 (compared to 1990). This pathway would require an annual reduction in emissions (compared to 1990) of approximately 1 percentage point in the decade up to 2020, 1.5 percentage points in the decade up to 2030 and 2 percentage points in the remaining two decades up to 2050.

EU GHG emissions towards an 80% domestic reduction (100% =1990)

Why set the emission reduction milestones on the basis of domestic measures alone?

The Roadmap focuses on how much of the 80-95% reduction objective should be met through domestic measures and how much through the acquisition of international credits to offset emissions in Europe.

From the analysis it was concluded that large-scale use of international credits will no longer be possible in 2050 as the global climate action needed to keep average warming below 2ºC will reduce the supply of credits and thus their availability at cheap cost. It is therefore economically logical to plan for reducing emissions almost entirely through domestic measures in the longer term.

Use of international credits in addition to the domestic measures taken would ensure the achievement of overall emission reductions beyond 80%.

Why is a 25% domestic reduction by 2020 needed, and how can it be achieved?

The EU currently has a target to cut its emissions by 20% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2020. This target can be reached through a combination of domestic measures and use of international credits. But analysis by the Commission last year indicated that with current policies, including full implementation of the 20% renewable energy target by 2020, the EU should be able to reduce these emissions through internal measures alone.

The analysis on which the Roadmap is based shows that the most cost-efficient pathway to an 80% domestic reduction in 2050 requires a 25% cut in 2020 through domestic measures alone. The less that is done to reduce emissions in the early decades, the higher the reductions that will be needed later, with significantly higher carbon prices and costs as a result.

The analysis also shows that a 25% domestic reduction by 2020 can be achieved if the EU delivers on its existing commitment to improve energy efficiency 20% by 2020. With current policies the EU is on track to improve energy efficiency by only around 10%. The Energy Efficiency Plan proposed by the Commission today aims to help ensure the 20% improvement is fully achieved.

Why should some allowances be set aside in the EU Emissions Trading System during the 2013–2020 period? Won't this increase uncertainty in the carbon market?

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) sets a cap on the total emissions allowed from the sectors it covers by allocating a finite number of allowances that companies can trade. This ensures that reductions can be achieved cost efficiently across all sectors involved.

The implementation of additional energy efficiency measures, other than those motivated through the carbon price signal in the ETS, would actually reduce the scarcity of allowances in the system and thus lower carbon prices. This would counter the intended effect of these energy efficiency measures.

Hence, setting aside a number of allowances from the amount to be auctioned during the 2013-2020 trading period would be a necessary complement to achieve sustainable energy efficiency improvements that would contribute to the 20% energy savings objective. It would restore the reward for low carbon investments and prepare the ETS sectors for the innovations needed to reduce emissions further in the medium to long term.

Setting aside allowances is not a backdoor way to introduce a tighter ETS cap nor an intervention in the carbon market. Under the revised ETS Directive decisions are made on the timing of auctions to be held between 2013 and 2020. Given support by other European institutions and further consultations with stakeholders, a gradually increasing number of allowances in the auctioning budget could be set aside from 2013.

What about the EU's conditional offer to reduce emissions 30% by 2020?

In the context of the ongoing international negotiations on a future global framework for climate action, the EU has offered to scale up its emissions reduction target for 2020 to 30% if the conditions are right. This requires other major economies to take on their fair share of a global emissions reduction effort. This offer remains on the table and is not affected by the Roadmap.

Is an 80% reduction by 2050 technically feasible? Is it economically affordable?

The analysis underlying the Roadmap shows that an 80% domestic reduction is both technically feasible and economically affordable.

It is technically feasible with proven technologies that exist today if sufficiently strong incentives (such as a robust carbon price) are applied across all sectors. The analysis demonstrates that research and development of low carbon technologies and their early demonstration and deployment are very important to make the transition as cost-effective as possible. Hence, the Roadmap emphasises the importance of the EU's Strategic Energy Technology Plan as an essential component of Europe's low carbon development strategy.

Regarding its economic affordability, achieving an 80% emissions reduction by 2050 will require additional annual investment averaging 1.5% of EU GDP - or €270 billion - for the next 40 years on top of current overall investment of around 19% of GDP. This extra spending would simply return total investment to levels seen before the economic crisis. It is not a net cost for the economy or a reduction of GDP, but an additional investment in Europe's domestic economy.

This will have multiple benefits in terms of stimulating innovation, new sources of growth and job creation, strengthening energy security and reducing air pollution and its associated costs. Moreover, the additional investments will lead to fuel cost savings averaging €175-320 billion [3] every year, thus largely offsetting or, at the top end of the range, even over-compensating the extra investment cost. Fuel costs are paid largely to third countries while increased investments create added value in Europe's economy, creating jobs and improving productivity.

How can an 80% reduction by 2050 be achieved in practice? Which sectors must do what?

Reducing emissions by 80% by mid-century will require substantial further innovation in existing technologies but does not require new 'breakthrough' technologies, such as nuclear fusion. Technologies addressed in the Strategic Energy Technology Plan - solar, wind and bio-energy, smart grids, carbon capture and storage, low or zero energy homes, smart cities - will form the backbone of the low carbon economy in 2050.

The low carbon economy can also be achieved without major lifestyle changes, for example in diet or mobility patterns. However, such changes could help, and could improve the overall cost-effectiveness of the transition by helping to avoid more expensive reduction options.

Based on the cost-effectiveness analysis undertaken, the Roadmap gives ranges for emission reductions to be achieved in key sectors by 2030 and 2050 (see table).

The greatest emission reductions can be made in power generation, which will be almost completely 'decarbonised [4] ' by 2050. Above-average contributions in the medium and long term can also be achieved by the residential and services sector. Industry would decarbonise slightly less than the overall economy in the medium term, but would be able to achieve significant further reductions by 2050, in particular due to the mainstream application after 2030 of carbon capture and storage technology - CCS – to industrial process emissions that cannot be reduced in other ways.

Transport and agriculture are the main sectors where no full decarbonisation is achieved, even in the longer term. In transport, the increasing trend in emissions seen over the past 20 years is reversed but the overall reduction achieved by 2050 is only around 60% below 1990 levels. The analysis did not cover international maritime transport, whose emissions continue to grow rapidly and account for about 4% of global man-made CO2 emissions, but many cost-effective solutions exist to reduce these.

For agriculture the pattern is the inverse of transport. It achieves significant emission reductions between now and 2030, but after that reductions will be more limited. In contrast to the sectors already mentioned, agriculture's main emissions are not of carbon dioxide (CO2) but of methane and nitrous oxide (N20).

Non-CO2 emissions from other sources - such as methane from waste landfills and N20 emissions from industrial processes - will also be rapidly reduced until 2030, after which only limited further reductions take place.

The industrial and power sectors covered by the EU Emissions Trading System can achieve greater emission reductions, and more cost-effectively, than the sectors outside the system. By 2050 emissions from the ETS sectors would be reduced by around 90% compared to 2005 (the year the ETS was launched), whereas the sectors outside the ETS would reduce by nearly 70%.

What carbon prices are needed to achieve such reductions?

Carbon pricing is an effective instrument to reduce emissions across the whole economy. It ensures cost efficiency and raises revenues that can be recycled into other productive uses in the domestic economy. In the Commission's analysis, carbon pricing is used to simulate the level of incentives necessary to ensure further GHG emission reductions over time.

The analysis projects that carbon prices will need to increase gradually to reach €100-€370 per ton of CO2 [5] (or the equivalent amount of other greenhouse gases) by 2050.

Carbon prices would be highest if innovation in certain technologies stalled or climate action delayed. Carbon prices would be lowest if fossil fuel prices were high. But carbon pricing is a better tool for decarbonising the economy than high fossil fuel prices. Revenues from carbon pricing can be recycled in the local economy whereas the cost of high fossil fuel prices cannot, especially in the EU which is heavily reliant on fossil fuel imports.

What type of investments are needed to build the low carbon economy?

Additional investment is needed in sectors such as power generation, transport, the built environment (buildings and other infrastructure) and industry. However the largest investment in absolute terms would not be in power generation, electricity grid infrastructure or industry but rather in demand-side technologies in the transport sector (most notably vehicles) and the built environment (for instance energy-efficient building materials and components, heat pumps and appliances).

How can these investments be financed?

The majority of investments will have to be financed by the private sector and consumers. A combination of smart pricing policies and instruments that can unlock private investment will be required. Some Member States have already introduced policies such as preferential loan schemes, guarantee schemes and risk sharing facilities that pay back part of a low-energy investment, and tax rebates.

The EU will also need to address how in future a larger share of regional funding from the EU budget can be allocated to policy instruments that leverage private sector resources for low carbon investments.

The EU Emissions Trading System is an important instrument for steering investment in the sectors it covers - power generation, energy-intensive industry and, from next year, aviation - because it financially rewards low carbon investments.

In other sectors, such as transport and buildings, public policy will also be needed to steer consumer choices. To a certain extent this is possible through conventional regulatory measures such as the efficiency standards introduced through the EU Ecodesign Directive, EU legislation limiting CO2 emissions from cars, national building standards and national carbon taxes. Awareness raising and consumer information can also help.

What impact will moving to a low carbon economy have on employment?

Investing early in the low carbon economy will create new jobs in both the short and medium term.

Renewable energy has a strong track record in job creation. In just five years, Europe's renewable industry has increased its work force from 230,000 to 550,000. Low carbon investment also offers major job opportunities for the construction sector. With some 15 million employees in the EU, construction has been particularly hard hit by the economic crisis. Its recovery could get a significant boost through a major effort to accelerate the building of energy efficient houses and the renovation of existing ones to make them low carbon. The Energy Efficiency Plan confirms the large job creation potential of promoting investments in more efficient equipment.

The Commission has repeatedly emphasised the positive employment benefits that could result if governments used revenues from the auctioning of EU Emissions Trading System allowances and CO2 taxation to reduce labour costs. If this is done, stepping up the emissions reduction effort for 2020 from 20% to 25% has the potential to increase total employment in the EU by up to 1.5 million jobs by 2020.

In the longer term, the creation and preservation of jobs will depend on the EU's ability to lead the development of new low carbon technologies through increased research and development spending and innovation, as well as maintaining favourable economic framework conditions for investments.

As industry takes advantage of the economic opportunities provided by the low carbon economy, the need to ensure a skilled work force will become more pressing, especially in the construction sector, technical professions, engineering and research. This will require targeted vocational training of the existing work force towards these new 'green' job opportunities.

How can moving to a low carbon economy improve the EU's energy security?

Moving to a low carbon economy in 2050 would substantially improve the EU's energy security.

Today the EU imports some 55% of its primary energy - the transport sector remains more than 90% dependent on oil - and under a business as usual scenario this proportion is expected to increase slightly to 57% by 2030 due to reduced oil and gas output from the North Sea. The European economy would therefore remain exposed to serious potential risks from energy price fluctuations.

The Roadmap would reduce the EU's total primary energy consumption to 1650 million tons oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2030 and around 1300-1350 Mtoe in 2050. This is a significant decrease compared to more than 1800 Mtoe in 2005.

More domestic energy resources would be used, in particular renewable energy, and by 2050 total oil and gas imports would be more than halved compared to 2005. Starting from 2025, this would lead to a reversal in the trend of increasing fuel import dependency, and by 2050 the EU would import less than 35% of its energy needs. By mid-century the oil and gas bill would be around 80% lower than if no additional climate measures were taken - a saving of € 400 billion or more.

These reductions would result mainly from technological changes and efficiency improvements on the demand side. Initially the biggest improvement in energy efficiency would come from more efficient buildings, heating systems and vehicles. This would be reinforced later by electrification in transport and heating, which would combine very efficient demand-side technologies (plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles, heat pumps) with a largely decarbonised power sector.

What would the impact on world fossil fuel prices be if climate action were taken globally?

The analysis underlying the Roadmap shows the interaction between action at global level to address climate change and the future evolution of fossil fuel prices.

Without additional action on climate change, oil prices are projected to almost double over the next four decades as global consumption would remain high. If climate action were taken globally, oil prices would remain stable compared to today. But if international action were only fragmented, and emission reductions did not go beyond those pledged to date, this price reduction would not materialise and oil prices would be only 15% lower than if no additional action were taken.

All these results are consistent with the analysis of the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2010 which also assessed these impacts.

Will a low carbon economy reduce air pollution?

Yes, considerably. With an 80% reduction in domestic emissions below 1990 levels by 2050, average air pollution levels would be more than 65% lower than in 2005 with annual cost savings totalling up to €88 billion. In 2050 the costs of controlling traditional air pollutants could be close to €50 billion lower per year. In addition the improvement in air quality would improve public health and reduce mortality, with annual benefits estimated at up to €38 billion in 2050. There would also be reduced damage to ecosystems, crops, materials and buildings, but these benefits have not been quantified.

What would a low carbon economy mean for the power sector?

The Roadmap suggests CO2 emission reductions in the power generation sector of 54-68% by 2030 and 93-99% by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels).

The efficiency of electricity use by end users would increase dramatically. Nevertheless in absolute terms electricity consumption would keep on increasing up to 2050 at a similar pace as the last 20 years. This would result from increasing demand for electricity from the heating and transport sectors, triggered by the wide-scale application of efficient demand-side technologies, such as plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles and heat pumps.

On the supply side, the share of low carbon technologies in the electricity mix – renewable energy sources, electricity from fossil fuel-generation plants fitted with carbon capture and storage technology, nuclear power – would rapidly increase from 45% today to around 60% in 2020, 75-80% in 2030 and nearly 100% in 2050.

The Commission will develop a specific 2050 Roadmap for energy by the end of this year.

What would a low carbon economy mean for the transport sector?

The Roadmap suggests that, compared to 1990 levels, overall CO2 emissions from transport will be between 20% higher and 9% lower by 2030 and 54-67% lower by 2050.

Improved fuel efficiency of conventional petrol and diesel engines would be the major contributor to the decarbonisation of transport up to 2025. For passenger cars these efficiency improvements are driven by a gradual hybridisation. After 2025 a real fuel switch takes place for passenger cars towards electro-mobility with the more wide-scale introduction of, for instance, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.

For aviation, and to a lesser extent heavy duty road vehicles, biofuels would play a more important role, mostly after 2030. Aviation would see a significant increase in biofuel use.

Electro-mobility limits the use of biofuels in transport. Without electrification the use of biofuels would be twice as high.

The analysis does not include specific transport policies to reduce different kinds of 'external' costs, such as congestion and air pollution. Such policies can lead to additional benefits.

The analysis demonstrates that there is a clear correlation between reductions in the transport sector and in the power sector. If the transport sector reduces emissions more through electro-mobility, electricity use increases, putting upward pressure on emissions from electricity production. Thus even if most of the transport sector is not covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (with the exception, from next year on, of aviation), over time transport would increasingly influence developments in the ETS.

While the analysis did not include international maritime transport which causes about 4% of global man-made CO2 emissions and whose emissions continue to grow rapidly, all sectors should contribute to emission reductions and many cost-effective solutions exist to reduce greenhouse gases from this sector. The climate and energy package of legislation adopted in 2009 envisages that the international maritime sector should contribute to the EU's emission reduction commitments. In the event that no international agreement which includes international maritime emissions in its reduction targets is approved by the EU by the end of this year, the Commission will need to address this issue and include international maritime emissions in the EU reduction commitment. The forthcoming White Paper on transport will address maritime transport.

What would a low carbon economy mean for industry?

The Roadmap envisages CO2 reductions from industry of 34-40% by 2030 and 83-87% by 2050 (compared to 1990).

Up to 2030 and just beyond, CO2 reductions would happen gradually through further decreases in energy intensity. After 2035 the application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology for CO2 emissions from industrial processes that cannot be reduced in other ways (e. g. steel and cement production) becomes mainstream, allowing much deeper cuts by 2050.

Non-CO2 emissions from industry are already forecast to fall to very low levels without additional climate action due to their inclusion in the EU Emission Trading System.

Will moving to a low carbon economy reduce the competitiveness of European industry?

The analysis underlying the Roadmap confirms that the impact on the production levels of energy-intensive industries would be limited. Continued free allocation of EU Emissions Trading System emission allowances would protect exposed energy-intensive industry in Europe even if the EU stepped up its action but other countries did not.

As mentioned in the previous answer, to realise the emission reduction potentials foreseen after 2035 requires the large-scale introduction of CCS technology. This would increase costs in the energy-intensive industrial sectors by more than €10 billion annually in the decade up to 2050. If climate action were taken worldwide this would not raise competitiveness concerns. But if the EU's main competitors did not engage in a similar manner, the EU would need to consider how to address the added risk of 'carbon leakage' (industrial relocation out of Europe, leading to higher overall emissions).

What would a low carbon economy mean for the residential and services sector?

The Roadmap envisages a reduction in CO2 emissions from the residential and services sector of 37-53% by 2030 and 88-91% by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels).

Space heating and cooling, water heating and cooking are the major energy consumers in this sector, with lighting and electrical appliances accounting for much of the remaining energy use.

The key trends foreseen are similar to those in the transport sector. First, overall energy demand would be reduced: energy efficiency, in particular the energy performance of buildings, would be improved, with passive house technology becoming mainstream and the energy performance of existing buildings greatly improved through refurbishments.

Second, as in the transport sector, there would be a gradual but major shift in fuel use away from oil, gas and coal towards electricity and renewable fuels. Efficient heat pumps would play an important role and in addition, biogas, biomass and solar heating would replace fossil fuels.

What will happen to non-CO2 emissions, in particular from agriculture, in a low carbon economy?

Between 1990 and 2005, EU emissions of greenhouse gases other than CO2 - 'non-CO2 emissions' - were reduced by a quarter, considerably faster than CO2 emissions. Today emissions of nitrous oxide (N20) and methane from agriculture make up more than half of non-CO2 emissions from all sources.

Non-CO2 emissions from sources other than agriculture are projected to decrease significantly, especially before 2030. This is due to the relatively cheap reduction options available to address these emissions, and the inclusion of a large part of them in the ETS from 2013 onwards. The Roadmap anticipates that non-CO2 emissions from sectors other than agriculture would be 72-73% lower in 2030 and 70-78% lower in 2050 (compared to 1990).

Agricultural non-CO2 emissions already fell by 20% from 1990 to 2005. They are projected to continue decreasing, reaching a reduction of 36-37% in 2030 (compared to 1990) but after that the downward trend would slow, resulting in a 42-49% cut by 2050.

With emissions of just over 300 million tonnes per year in 2050, agriculture would account for around one-third of total EU emissions by then, tripling its share from 2005. This points to the important role of agriculture in achieving decarbonisation of the European economy. If agricultural emissions did not continue to decrease, other sectors would need to reduce theirs by even more.

At the same time, as global food demand grows and eating habits change towards more carbon-intensive diets, the analysis clearly shows there are limits to the reduction of agricultural emissions in the EU. A potentially important element that is not included in the quantitative assessment is the possible impact of behavioural changes that would reverse the current trends towards more carbon-intensive diets. In the long term, a transition to a more healthy diet could reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions substantially.

What will happen to emissions if more bio-energy is produced in a low carbon economy?

Energy from biomass is a significant component of the increase in renewable energy projected over the coming decades. Production of bio-energy would more than triple in the period 2010 to 2050 as Europe moved to a low carbon economy. Increased demand for bio-energy would be met mainly from increased biofuel production from agricultural crops and increased use of agricultural residues, woody biomass and waste materials.

The increases in demand for bio-energy will have effects on the way land is used in the EU as bio-energy competes to a certain extent with other end uses such as production of food, animal feed, paper and timber. Furthermore, production of bio-energy could itself have an impact on the EU's GHG emissions by:

Causing changes in agricultural inputs, such as increased fertiliser use, that could increase emissions; Causing changes in land use, such as changes in deforestation or afforestation rates or conversion of grassland into cropland, that lead to higher emissions; Causing changes in forest management practices which alter the extent to which managed forests emit or absorb emissions.

In Europe, land use, land use change and forestry (collectively known by the acronym LULUCF) at present absorbs more carbon than it emits. In net terms, it is a carbon 'sink'. Over time, this net sink is projected to decrease significantly, due to the ageing of forests (older trees absorb less carbon) but also because of increased harvesting of trees for production of bio-energy, paper and timber.

Reducing the increase in demand for virgin wood, for instance by recycling more organic waste, paper and wood, would limit the extent to which the net sink function would diminish over time. EU demand for bio-energy could also be met through imports, which would reduce environmental impacts in the EU but potentially increase them in third countries.

The inter-relationships between the energy, forestry and agricultural sectors are complex, and uncertainties are large. This issue will require continued follow-up. The Commission is preparing an initiative on this issue for later this year.

What about food prices in a low carbon economy?

Improvements in agricultural productivity will be very important to ensure that increases in bio-energy can be delivered without having overly negative impacts on other end uses of forestry or agriculture, including food production.

The analysis underlying the Roadmap concluded that agriculture and forestry can achieve all of the following competing goals in 2050 if continued productivity improvements can be achieved on a global scale:

the need to feed an increasing global population (projected to reach just over 9 billion in 2050) that becomes more affluent in general; the EU's objective of stopping net global deforestation, in particular in developing countries; a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture; increased biomass use for energy in the context of global action on climate change.

However, the analysis found that if productivity improvements cannot be achieved, the above goals will either not be met, or will be met but only with significant food price increases. This demonstrates that the resource-efficient Europe flagship initiative will also need to address the impact of land use constraints further.

What happens with the Roadmap now? What are the next steps?

The Roadmap takes the form of a Communication that is addressed to the Council, European Parliament, European Economic and Social Committee and Committee of the Regions, as well as to national parliaments for their information.

The EU institutions and bodies are expected to give their responses, in the form of conclusions or resolutions, in the coming months. The Commission invites them, member states and stakeholders to take the Roadmap into account in the further development of EU and national policies for achieving a low carbon economy by 2050.

At sectoral level the Commission sees a need to develop specific Roadmaps in cooperation with the sectors concerned. How to leverage finance for low carbon technologies will be part of discussions on the EU's next budget framework for 2014-2020. Incentives to reduce emissions from agriculture and forestry will be part of the further development of the Common Agricultural Policy.

The Roadmap and Energy Efficiency Plan adopted today will be followed by a White Paper on Transport later this month. Together with this Roadmap, all three are key components of the resource-efficient Europe flagship initiative set up under the Europe 2020 strategy. In this context the Commission is also preparing a Communication on resource efficiency and a 2050 Energy Roadmap for adoption later this year.

The EU Emissions Trading System and Climate Policy Towards 2050: Real Incentives to Reduce Emissions and Drive Innovation?

CEPS Special Reports.

40 Pages Posted: 10 Feb 2011.

Christian Egenhofer.

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

Monica Alessi.

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

Anton Georgiev.

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

Noriko Fujiwara.

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

Date Written: January 12, 2011.

With the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) now entering in its seventh year of operation, this report takes stock of the largest multi-sector greenhouse gas trading scheme in the world. It reviews the experiences of the pilot phase from 2005-07, assesses the adjustments introduced in the second phase (2008-12) and looks ahead to the radical changes that will come into effect in the third phase starting in 2013. The assessment is based on a literature review of recently published ex-post analyses and ex-ante studies and draws as well on our own calculations. It investigates the main controversies surrounding the EU ETS, such as its environmental effectiveness, economic rents, windfall profits and fairness, the role of CDM and JI and its impact of on industrial competitiveness. It also evaluates the scheme’s ability to promote innovation and low-carbon technology deployment. Finally, the study addresses the fundamental question of whether the ETS has lived up to its promise to “promote reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective and economically efficient manner”, and if not, what are the prospects of its doing so in the future and what additional changes will be required.

Keywords: EU, Emissions Trading System, ETS, experiences, pilot phase, calculations, environmental effectiveness, economic rents, windfall profits, fairness, industrial competitiveness.

Christian Egenhofer (Contact Author)

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) ( email )

1 Place du Congres.

B-1000 Brussels, 1000.

Monica Alessi.

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) ( email )

1 Place du Congres.

Anton Georgiev.

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) ( email )

1 Place du Congres.

Noriko Fujiwara.

Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) ( email )

1 Place du Congres.

Estatísticas de papel.

Jornais relacionados.

European Public Law: EU eJournal.